Colorado COVID Data Unmasked

We have reported on this before, but sometimes it is helpful to see it spelled out.

This is the only graph Colorado government officials want you to see:

Or perhaps this one:

Or this one, which is used as the entire basis for the forced mitigations of the crazy COVID dial:

These graphs certainly paint a picture of a calamitous virus either unable to be contained or allowed to grow out of control by disobedient Colorado citizens (selfish bastards) who won’t just “wear a damn mask.” Yet the case graph shows that the recorded new cases in November blow away the cases during the height of the pandemic in March, April, and May, even though the positivity graph (above) shows that case positivity has climbed to roughly where it was in April. How is it possible that case positivity is about the same as April but cases are much, much higher? Simple – we are testing 15,000-20,000 Coloradoans every single day.

Let’s look at another graph:

Above we see new cases and new hospitalizations and have added the new test moving average. See the correlation? The rise in new cases and (although it’s such a small percentage) new hospitalizations follows almost exactly the rise in new testing. Here is the same graph with the hospitalizations magnified 100X so we can see the correlation:

The above graph shows very clearly the test-driven nature of cases and hospitalizations.

Let’s correlate a few more things:

The above graph is not 7-day moving averages, it is the total over the entire year. This graph demonstrates that although confirmed cases are skyrocketing, the case fatality rate (that is, how lethal the virus presumably is to those who become infected) has bottomed out and stabilized at 1.38%, which is entirely in line with the seasonal flu. We also see a flatlining (no pun intended) of the hospitalization rate – meaning of the total cases a shrinking percentage were considered hospitalizations. This is exactly what happens in every novel virus outbreak.

But wait! Hasn’t the media told us that the severity of the coronavirus has spiked because of our non-compliance? Yes, they have, but it is not true. Instead, hospitalizations as a factor of cases have been relatively stable for months:

The moving average of new Colorado coronavirus-linked hospitalizations versus the moving average of new cases has been relatively stable since July. This tells us that the severity of the virus has not spiked whatsoever, only that through testing we have discovered more infections and labeled more cases, whether in or out of the hospital.

But aren’t more people dying? First, we must understand that hospitalizations and mortality increase every single winter and flu season. Deaths from all causes rise this time of year. Yet overall mortality has not increased in 2020. Instead, deaths normally attributed to other causes like heart disease and emphysema are being counted as coronavirus deaths instead. Here we see Colorado’s numbers:

Not only has the total case fatality rate bottomed out (yellow line three graphs above), but the case fatality rate is not spiking (average represented by the grey line in the above graph).

The Colorado government has not moved off of their Imperial College-inspired model that predicted insane numbers like deaths between 100 and 37,000 with hospitalizations between 900-282,000 (how could they possibly be wrong?). The only factor used to determine the level of mitigation is the positivity rate, with no consideration of the fact that the virus is not any more severe or deadly. This model takes whatever happens and assumes your compliance, so if positivity climbs you clearly aren’t doing what you’re told (and get the blame), and if positivity falls you are obeying (and the politicians take the credit).

Next we will expose the Colorado COVID model for the patently absurd stupidity that it is.